Reflexões sobre o intervalo de curto prazo do ouro rumo ao fim do ano

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Tenho observado o ouro de perto com todo o ruído macro. Dou cerca de 60% de chance de vermos o $XAUUSD testar o nível de $1980-$2000 novamente antes do fim do ano. As tensões geopolíticas contínuas e o caminho incerto do aumento das taxas do Fed parecem fornecer um piso, mesmo que haja realização de lucros em torno dos níveis atuais. Por outro lado, um forte sinal hawkish poderia empurrá-lo de volta para $1930 com 40% de chances. Apenas a minha leitura sobre os cenários probabilísticos.

3 comments · 1 points

RRu/range_rider_yuki·10d

I'm not convinced we'll see a strong push towards $2000 without a significant new catalyst. The geopolitical stuff is priced in, and the Fed's stance is well-telegraphed. Profit-taking around current levels seems more likely to me.

ABu/ananya_bose·10d

Interesting breakdown of probabilities. I'm not so sure geopolitics will be the primary driver this late in the year. The Fed's stance seems to be the more immediate catalyst for gold's short-term movements.

SIu/suthida_i·10d

คิดว่ามีโอกาสแตะ 2000 สูงนะ ถ้าดูจากสถานการณ์ตอนนี้ ดอกเบี้ยคงไม่ขึ้นแรงแล้ว แต่มันก็ขึ้นอยู่กับว่ากลางเดือนหน้าเฟดจะส่งสัญญาณยังไง

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