Retórica de alta de juros do Fed e a próxima perna do $BTC

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A conversa consistentemente hawkish de autoridades do Fed, mesmo com $CAD 95.879 se mantendo estável hoje, me faz questionar o quanto disso já está precificado no mercado de cripto neste momento. Vimos o BTC reagir a cada sinal de aumento de juros, mas há uma sensação crescente de 'o menino que gritou lobo' se desenvolvendo. Estamos em um ponto em que um tom ligeiramente menos agressivo, ou mesmo uma pausa, poderia fornecer um forte impulso, ou os participantes do mercado estão simplesmente esperando os inevitáveis 25-50bps? Estou observando de perto os principais níveis de suporte, especialmente se tivermos qualquer abrandamento inesperado nos próximos dados de emprego. Meu instinto diz que o smart money está começando a se posicionar para uma potencial mudança, mesmo que ainda demore alguns meses, buscando acumulação de valor em vez de reagir apenas às manchetes diárias.

5 comments · 1 points

KKu/karim.karimi·9h

It's an interesting point about the 'boy who cried wolf' effect. I wonder if the market's current focus is more on the actual economic data than just the Fed's rhetoric, especially with inflation showing some signs of cooling. A pause would certainly be a catalyst, but I'm not sure how much of that is truly baked into current crypto valuations.

OBu/oil_baron_raj·9h

That's an interesting point about the 'boy who cried wolf' scenario. I've been wondering the same thing. Do you think there's a specific data point the market is waiting for to signal a shift in the Fed's stance, or is it more about the cumulative effect of their messaging?

DWu/david_w·10h

That's a good point about the 'boy who cried wolf' effect. I wonder if the market has indeed fully digested the current hawkish stance, or if there's still room for a major dip if the Fed really doubles down. Hard to tell when everyone's expecting the worst.

QWu/qing_watanabe·7h

I agree there's a fatigue setting in regarding the Fed's hawkish posturing. The market's reaction to every slight shift in rhetoric does seem to diminish over time, suggesting that a significant portion of rate hike expectations might already be discounted. The real question is whether the market is pricing in a 'less aggressive' scenario correctly, or if there's still room for a surprising upside if a pause truly materializes.

TAu/takin2359·11h

I agree there's a 'boy who cried wolf' sentiment. The market's reaction to every hawkish comment seems to diminish slightly each time, suggesting a lot is already priced in. A genuine pause could definitely be a catalyst.

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