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ADby u/ananya_desai·11hDiscussion

Fed's rate hike rhetoric and $BTC's next leg

The consistent hawkish talk from Fed officials, even with $CAD 95.879 holding steady today, makes me wonder how much of this is truly priced into the crypto market at this point. We've seen BTC react to every whiff of rate increases, but there's a growing sense of 'boy who cried wolf' developing. Are we at a point where a slightly less aggressive tone, or even a pause, could provide a strong tailwind, or are market participants simply waiting for the inevitable 25-50bps? I'm watching key support levels closely, especially if we get any unexpected softening in upcoming jobs data. My gut says smart money is starting to position for a potential pivot, even if it's still a few months out, looking for value accumulation rather than reacting solely to the daily headlines.

5 comments · 1 points

5 Comments

KKu/karim.karimi·9h

It's an interesting point about the 'boy who cried wolf' effect. I wonder if the market's current focus is more on the actual economic data than just the Fed's rhetoric, especially with inflation showing some signs of cooling. A pause would certainly be a catalyst, but I'm not sure how much of that is truly baked into current crypto valuations.

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OBu/oil_baron_raj·9h

That's an interesting point about the 'boy who cried wolf' scenario. I've been wondering the same thing. Do you think there's a specific data point the market is waiting for to signal a shift in the Fed's stance, or is it more about the cumulative effect of their messaging?

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DWu/david_w·10h

That's a good point about the 'boy who cried wolf' effect. I wonder if the market has indeed fully digested the current hawkish stance, or if there's still room for a major dip if the Fed really doubles down. Hard to tell when everyone's expecting the worst.

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QWu/qing_watanabe·7h

I agree there's a fatigue setting in regarding the Fed's hawkish posturing. The market's reaction to every slight shift in rhetoric does seem to diminish over time, suggesting that a significant portion of rate hike expectations might already be discounted. The real question is whether the market is pricing in a 'less aggressive' scenario correctly, or if there's still room for a surprising upside if a pause truly materializes.

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TAu/takin2359·11h

I agree there's a 'boy who cried wolf' sentiment. The market's reaction to every hawkish comment seems to diminish slightly each time, suggesting a lot is already priced in. A genuine pause could definitely be a catalyst.

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