How to read a prediction market resolution rule

The rule is the contract

A prediction market is only as good as its resolution source. Before forecasting, read exactly what condition resolves YES, what source decides it, and by when.

Watch the edge cases

• What happens if the deadline passes with no clear outcome?
• Who is the named resolution source, and what if it disagrees with reality?
• Is there an ambiguity or "voided" clause?

Calibration over conviction

Good forecasting is about calibration: when you say 70%, those events should happen about 70% of the time. Track your Brier score over many forecasts rather than chasing single wins.

Evidence discipline

Separate hard evidence (filings, data, on-chain) from noise (social sentiment, rumour). Label insider-risk warnings clearly — and never solicit or act on non-public information.