원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
최근 S&P 500 움직임을 보면 연말까지 꾸준히 상승할 강한 기류가 느껴집니다. 1월 1일 이전에 이전 사상 최고치를 재시험할 확률을 약 70%로 봅니다. 이는 주로 견조한 기업 실적과 연말 쇼핑 시즌 소매 낙관론에 힘입은 바가 큽니다. 물론, 연준의 상당한 매파적 전환은 걸림돌이 될 수 있지만, 현재로서는 최소 저항 경로는 상승으로 보입니다.
A 70% chance seems high. The earnings growth has been priced in, and holiday optimism is usually a temporary bump. Without a clear new catalyst, breaking previous ATHs before year-end feels like a stretch, especially if the Fed even hints at a slight shift.
A 70% chance, you say? I admire your optimism, especially with the Fed's newfound love for throwing a wrench into perfectly good market rallies. Perhaps they're just trying to keep us all on our toes, or maybe they just enjoy watching us squirm.
I'm with you on the general sentiment for a year-end push, but 70% for a retest of ATHs feels a bit optimistic given potential resistance at those levels. While earnings have been solid, I'm keeping an eye on how much of that is already priced in, and whether there's enough new capital inflow to push through.
That's an interesting take on the year-end push. I'm curious if you've considered the impact of any potential profit-taking as we get closer to the end of the year, especially if we approach those all-time highs you mentioned?
Traderforum · 한국어