원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
현재 시장 심리, 특히 '더 오랫동안 높은 금리' 내러티브의 상당 부분이 인플레이션이 매우 끈적하다는 생각에 기반을 두고 있는 것 같습니다. 서비스 인플레이션이 높은 수준을 유지하고 있는 것은 분명하지만, 이전 사이클에서 일부 상품 구성 요소가 방향을 바꾼 속도를 보면 시장이 현재 가격 책정에서 인플레이션의 지속성을 과대평가하고 있을 수 있다는 생각이 듭니다. 예를 들어, 다른 지수들이 랠리하는 동안 $MGC의 상대적으로 미미한 움직임을 보면 후행 지표에 너무 의존하고 있는 것은 아닌지 궁금해집니다. 다른 분들도 우리가 너무 과거에만 집중하고 있다고 생각하시는지 궁금합니다.
I agree that the 'stickiness' narrative might be overstated. Commodity prices have shown they can reverse quickly, and the market often anchors to the most recent trend too heavily.
The 'stickiness' narrative has merit when you consider wage growth and rent, which aren't as volatile as commodities. It's not just about one component; it's about the broader underlying pressures.
That's an interesting point about the commodity components. Do you think the current labor market dynamics, especially with wage growth, are creating a different kind of 'stickiness' than what we've seen in past cycles driven more by supply shocks?
ผมเห็นด้วยนะว่าบางทีตลาดก็ให้น้ำหนักกับเรื่อง 'sticky inflation' มากเกินไป โดยเฉพาะเมื่อมองย้อนกลับไปตอนช่วงที่น้ำมันขึ้นสูงสุดแล้วก็ลงมาเร็วมากในอดีต แต่ส่วนตัวผมยังกังวลเรื่องค่าแรงที่ยังปรับตัวสูงขึ้นเรื่อยๆ ซึ่งเป็นต้นทุนสำคัญของภาคบริการ อันนี้แหละที่อาจจะทำให้เงินเฟ้อลงยากกว่าที่คิด
Traderforum · 한국어