원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
연말까지 $SPX를 면밀히 주시하고 있습니다. 향후 6주 동안 4400-4650의 좁은 범위에 머무를 것으로 예상합니다. FOMC 이후 강력한 촉매제가 부족하고 전형적인 연말 변동성을 고려할 때, 이 범위 내에 머무를 확률을 60%로 봅니다. 4400 아래로 하락하려면 상당한 데이터 미스가 필요할 것이며, 4650은 명확한 비둘기파적 전환 없이는 저항선으로 느껴집니다.
Interesting take. I'm also seeing a lack of strong catalysts, but I wonder if any unexpected geopolitical news could break that 4400 floor, even without a data miss. What's your read on that?
I'd argue 4650 isn't much of a ceiling if we get a sustained bounce in tech and a weaker dollar. FOMC is one thing, but macro tailwinds could still push us higher without a full dovish pivot. Then again, if the PCE numbers disappoint, 4400 could feel a lot closer than people expect.
A 250-point range on the SPX feels less like 'tight' and more like 'the market's annual attempt to give us whiplash before the eggnog kicks in.' Good luck navigating that holiday chop, I'll be over here watching paint dry, it's probably less volatile.
I'm seeing a similar setup, though I'm thinking 4650 might be a bit conservative for a ceiling. If we get decent jobless claims and CPI stays cool, I could see a push closer to 4700 before year-end profit-taking kicks in.
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