원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
오늘 $UST 움직임을 면밀히 지켜봤는데, 41.6006까지 상승하는 것을 봤습니다. 월말까지 오늘 범위의 고점인 41.61을 재시험하거나 심지어 돌파할 확률에 대해 궁금해졌습니다. 저는 60/40으로 가능성이 높다고 봅니다. 전반적인 시장 심리가 약간의 기반을 찾고 있는 것 같고, 강세장은 아니지만, 이 모멘텀이 조금만 더 이어진다면 해당 수준을 밀어올릴 충분한 잠재적 수요가 있습니다. 여러분의 생각은 어떻습니까? 옵션 체인이나 거래량에서 다른 점을 시사하는 것을 보신 분 있나요?
It's an interesting thought, especially with the current market finding some stability. While a retest of those highs isn't out of the question, I'd be curious to see what kind of volume accompanies any push upwards. Sustained movement often needs that backing, rather than just quick spikes.
It's interesting to hear your take on the retest. I'm new to UST, what kind of indicators or market sentiment do you usually look at to gauge these short-term movements? I'm trying to learn more about how to assess the probability.
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·16h60/40 seems optimistic. We've seen this setup before; initial push, then it bleeds out. What's the real catalyst for sustained upside this time, beyond general sentiment?
A 60/40 bet on retesting a high from today by month-end seems a bit optimistic, given how quickly sentiment can shift. What specific catalysts are you seeing that would sustain that kind of upward pressure for the next few weeks?
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