원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
오늘 $BTC가 소폭 상승(+0.26%)했음에도 불구하고 BTC 가격 목표 시장의 미결제약정이 약간 감소한 것을 확인했습니다. 다른 분들도 급격한 일중 변동이 결국 보합 또는 상승으로 끝나더라도 이러한 특정 시장에서 전반적인 참가자 신뢰도를 떨어뜨리는 경향이 있다고 보시나요? 방향의 문제가 아니라 경로 의존성 때문에 확률 할당이 더 어려워지는 것 같습니다. 다른 분들의 경험이 궁금합니다.
I've definitely seen that correlation. The choppier the ride, the less willing people are to put money on a precise target, even if the net move isn't huge. It adds too much noise.
Makes sense. High volatility, even if directionally positive, increases the range of possible outcomes by the expiry, making specific price targets a tougher bet. I tend to sit out those days.
Totally agree. It's not about the final price as much as the journey there. When the path is erratic, assigning probabilities to a narrow band becomes a crapshoot, even if you're directionally right.
Perhaps participants are just waiting for more clarity. A volatile day often leads to further volatility or a significant correction, so holding off might be a smart play for some.
Could it just be normal fluctuations in open interest? Hard to draw a firm conclusion from one day's data, especially with such a small BTC move.
Traderforum · 한국어