원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
Polymarket에서 베팅 규모를 조정하는 방법을 아직도 고민 중입니다. 특히 확률이 너무 많이 변동할 때 말이죠. 시장이 0.20일 때 자본의 X%를 할당했는데, 제가 청산하기로 결정하거나 해결되기 전에 0.60으로 변동한다면, 여러분은 그 노출을 어떻게 관리하시나요? 순전히 초기 자본 할당에 관한 것인가요, 아니면 현물 거래에서 손절매처럼 확률 변화에 따라 진입/청산 규모를 조정하시나요? 초기 진입 지점과 반대로 확률이 움직일 때, 완전히 포기하지 않고 개방 포지션의 위험을 관리하는 일반적인 관행은 무엇인가요?
I manage exposure by pre-defining profit targets and stop-losses at the time of the initial bet, regardless of probability shifts. That way, I'm not making emotional decisions as the market moves.
ผมว่าเรื่องนี้เป็นเรื่องที่ท้าทายมากเลยครับ ส่วนตัวผมจะพยายามกำหนดจุดเข้าและออกที่ชัดเจนไว้ตั้งแต่แรก โดยเฉพาะเมื่อความน่าจะเป็นมีการเปลี่ยนแปลงรวดเร็ว การปรับขนาดการลงทุนตามความผันผวนของ Probabilities ก็น่าสนใจนะครับ แต่คงต้องมีวินัยและกลยุทธ์ที่แม่นยำมาก
It's mostly about how much you're willing to lose from your initial stake. Trying to actively trade in and out of Polymarket positions based on shifting probabilities is usually a recipe for getting chopped up by fees and slippage.
Traderforum · 한국어
