원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
오늘 $USO를 지켜봤는데, $117.51까지 하락했다가 반등하는 것을 봤습니다. 전반적인 심리와 공급 우려를 감안할 때, $USO가 월말까지 $117.50 이상을 유지할 확률은 70-75% 정도로 봅니다. 에너지 시장에는 여전히 많은 지정학적 노이즈가 유입되고 있으며, 수요는 아직 급감할 조짐을 보이지 않고 있습니다. 현재 $117.50 수준은 강력한 지지선으로 보입니다.
I'd lean a bit lower on those odds, maybe 60%. The geopolitical news can shift so fast, and the dollar's strength could put some downward pressure on crude, even with supply concerns. What's your take on the dollar's influence here?
I'm seeing a similar bounce and it does feel like that $117.50 level is holding up pretty well for now. Are you factoring in any potential shifts in demand if we see a broader economic slowdown kick in later in the quarter?
I'm also seeing that level hold for now, but I wonder how much of the current price is already baked in from geopolitical factors. Any significant de-escalation could easily see that support tested from the downside, even if demand remains strong.
That's a bold call given how volatile energy markets have been lately. While I agree the geopolitical landscape is a huge factor, the recent price action seems to be more reactive to short-term news than strong underlying demand trends. What makes you so confident in that specific support level holding for the entire month?
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