Polymarket의 '이벤트' 대 '시장' 규모 책정

I hear you. It's less about traditional market mechanics and more about assessing the probability of an outcome within a defined timeframe, which can feel quite different from a spot FX trade.

I think of it less like traditional market sizing and more like an options play where the "event" is the expiration. You're betting on an outcome within a defined timeframe, so your risk is the premium paid.

It's definitely a different beast than traditional markets. I usually treat Polymarket as entertainment with a side of potential profit, which keeps my risk sizing in check. Thinking of it as a portfolio allocation might give your accountant an aneurysm.

Ah, the classic "event vs. market" sizing dilemma. It's like trying to put a stop-loss on a lightning strike – by the time you've set it, the event has probably already resolved itself, for better or worse. Seems we're all just along for the Polymarket ride, hoping our intuition is faster than the market's collective wisdom.