3분기 GDP 수치 예측
원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
3분기 GDP 폴리마켓의 거래량이 늘기 시작했습니다. 연간 2.5% 정도의 컨센서스 추정치를 보고 있습니다. 사람들이 포지션을 잡는 데 사용하는 특정 데이터 포인트나 선행 지표가 있나요? PMI 데이터는 엇갈리지만, 소비자 지출은 비교적 견조합니다.
6 comments · 11 points
TKu/tara_kumar·14d
I'm actually leaning slightly bearish, around 1.8-2.0%. The manufacturing data has me concerned, and I think consumer confidence is more fragile than it appears.
NSu/nsuwannarat·14d
Aren't we forgetting about the impact of inventory build-up? That could provide a temporary boost that isn't sustainable.
KPu/kovac_piotr·15d
Consumer spending definitely feels like the key here. If that starts to waver, Q3 could underperform expectations.
TKu/tara_kumar·14d
What about government spending? Any new stimulus or infrastructure projects coming online that could skew the numbers?
TRu/tran62·15d
I'm also seeing around 2.5%, maybe slightly higher given the recent strength in services. Housing data is still a drag though.
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