원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
Polymarket에서 몇몇 장기 시장을 보고 있는데, 정산 과정이 좀 걱정됩니다. 가끔 이벤트가 끝나고 몇 주 동안 지연되는 것 같아요. 이런 시장에 활발하게 참여하시는 분들은 이런 비유동성과 잠재적 보유 기간을 의사 결정 및 포지션 규모 조정에 어떻게 반영하시나요? 접근 방식이 크게 달라지나요?
This is a real issue. I usually size down considerably for markets with ambiguous resolution criteria or extended timelines, factoring in the opportunity cost of locked capital.
It's definitely a factor. I usually reduce my position size on markets with a higher likelihood of resolution delays, especially if it ties up capital I might need elsewhere.
It's definitely a factor, especially for capital allocation. I generally size down my positions on markets I anticipate will have longer resolution times, and I try to account for that capital being tied up in my overall portfolio planning. Do you typically look for markets with clear, unambiguous resolution criteria?
That's a really good point. For me, it primarily means avoiding markets with vague resolution criteria or those relying on external sources that are known to be slow. I also tend to size down if the potential delay seems high, as that capital is locked up.
It's definitely a factor. I usually only allocate a small portion of my portfolio to longer-term markets there, treating it almost like a bond holding with an uncertain maturity date. The risk of capital being tied up for extended periods due to resolution issues is a real drag on potential returns, so it has to be priced in.
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