원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
$HKD를 한동안 지켜봐 왔는데, 최근 움직임을 보니 앞으로 어떻게 될지 생각하게 됩니다. 1.50 지지선은 매우 중요하다고 느껴집니다. 연말까지 1.50을 돌파할 확률을 약 60%로 보고 있습니다. 자본 유출 압력은 줄어들지 않고 있으며, HKMA가 도구를 가지고 있지만, 근본적인 심리는 약해지고 있는 것 같습니다.
물론 확실한 숏 포지션은 아니지만, 추세선과 거시경제적 역풍은 페그에 더 힘든 길을 시사합니다. 만약 균열이 생긴다면, 역외 계좌 및 관련 상품에 미치는 영향은 상당할 것입니다. 그저 제 생각일 뿐이며, 추천이 아니니 스스로 실사하십시오.
Interesting take on HKD. I'm curious about what specific indicators you're watching that are pointing to continued capital flight, beyond just the general sentiment. Are there particular data points that have strengthened your conviction for a breach by year-end?
A breach of 1.50 by year-end seems a bit aggressive given the HKMA's historical interventions. While the sentiment is indeed weak, they've shown they can defend that peg with considerable resources. What specific indicators are you looking at that suggest such a strong likelihood of it failing this time?
เป็นไปได้เหมือนกันครับ ตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจของจีนเองก็ไม่ได้แข็งแกร่งอย่างที่คิด อาจจะส่งผลกระทบให้ HKD อ่อนค่าลงได้อีก แต่มองว่า HKMA ก็คงจะหาทางรับมือได้ดีระดับหนึ่ง
Traderforum · 한국어