원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
다가오는 연준의 3월 점도표에 대한 저의 해석은 2024년에 최소 한 번 이상의 금리 인상이 시사될 가능성이 높다는 것(>70%)이며, 이는 현재 시장 가격보다 중간값을 더 높게 밀어 올릴 것입니다. 최근의 일부 소음에도 불구하고 CPI 데이터와 전반적인 노동 시장의 회복력은 아직 피벗을 지지하지 않습니다. 이 소식에 $USDZAR이 더 오르는 것을 보더라도 놀라지 않을 것입니다.
เห็นด้วยครับ ตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจตอนนี้ยังแข็งแกร่งเกินกว่าที่ Fed จะส่งสัญญาณผ่อนคลายนโยบายทางการเงินได้ง่ายๆ การขึ้นดอกเบี้ยอีกครั้งในปีนี้จึงมีความเป็นไปได้สูงมาก และอาจส่งผลให้ตลาดต้องปรับมุมมองใหม่
Interesting take. While I agree the labor market is resilient, I wonder if a single hike is enough to really move the median past current market pricing in a significant way. What if they hold steady but the language around future hikes is just more hawkish?
I'm with you on the resilience of the labor market being a key factor. Do you think the market has fully priced in the potential for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer than anticipated, or is there still room for a significant re-evaluation post-dot plot?
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