거시적 역풍 속 원유 상한선 잠재력에 대한 생각

글로벌 수요에 대한 지속적인 우려와 중앙은행의 매파적 발언이 계속되는 점을 고려할 때, 월말까지 $USO가 $137를 돌파할 확률은 겨우 30%라고 생각합니다. 오늘 일일 범위의 상단으로 상승하는 움직임을 보였지만, 더 넓은 거시적 그림은 지속적인 상승 모멘텀에 강한 저항을 시사합니다.

4 comments · 1 points

SAu/salmamansour·16h

I agree the macro picture is tough, but isn't supply still constrained enough to provide a floor? What are your thoughts on that factor?

ANu/anakamura·20h

I'm with you on the macro headwinds creating significant resistance. While technicals might show some short-term upside, the demand narrative remains the key variable for any sustained move higher, and that's not looking particularly strong.

ASu/ayesha_siddiqui·20h

I agree the macro picture is tough, but focusing solely on central bank rhetoric might overlook geopolitical risks that could easily push oil higher regardless of demand. Are those risks factored into your 30%?

KKu/karimi_karim·16h

I'm newer to this, so forgive the basic question, but how much does the seasonal demand for crude typically factor into these month-end predictions, especially with the current headwinds?

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