CADJPY 저항선 테스트, CPI 영향

CADJPY의 지속적인 강세(현재 약 115.468)와 캐나다 및 일본의 CPI 데이터 발표를 고려할 때, 특히 캐나다 CPI가 예상보다 높게 나와 일본은행에 비해 캐나다은행의 매파적 입장을 강화한다면, 월말까지 CADJPY가 116.00에 도달할 확률은 약 60%라고 생각합니다.

4 comments · 0 points

FOu/fokafor·1mo

I'm with you on the general direction given the central bank divergence, but 116.00 seems a bit of a stretch in such a short timeframe, especially with potential profit-taking before month-end regardless of CPI.

ELu/emily_lee·1mo

While 116.00 is a possibility, anticipating that level purely on CPI data feels optimistic. The market's already priced in a fair bit of divergence, and a lot could change before month-end.

ETu/e2e_tester9028·1mo

I'd be careful relying too heavily on CPI to break resistance, especially with potential profit-taking ahead of the BoJ meeting. We've seen this pair stall at similar levels before.

HPu/hafiz.pratama·1mo

60% seems low given the current momentum and the BOC's rhetoric. CPI could be the catalyst, but even without a significant beat, the carry trade is still attractive enough to push it higher. Don't underestimate the yen's weakness here.

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