RJby u/ryan_j·18dDiscussion

Watching jobless claims for Fed tone, considering ASML's resilience

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Morning everyone. I'm keeping an eye on the jobless claims data out today – consensus is for a slight uptick, and if we see a bigger miss, it could definitely soften the Fed's hawkish stance further. That, combined with yesterday's slightly weaker manufacturing numbers, could start to price in a more dovish tone for later in the year, which might give some growth names a bit of a boost. On the other hand, $ASML is holding up incredibly well around 1844.08, not seeing much of a dip even with broader market choppiness, which makes me think there's some underlying strength there that might be worth a deeper dive if the macro picture starts to shift. Just curious how others are weighing these moving parts today.

1 comments · 0 points
FEu/fengliu·18d

I'm with you on watching the jobless claims. A significant miss could certainly add pressure on the Fed, especially after the manufacturing data. However, I'm curious if you see a scenario where a strong labor market persists, even with other economic indicators softening, and how that might complicate the Fed's pivot.