원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
모든 거시경제적 잡음 속에서 금을 면밀히 지켜보고 있습니다. 연말 이전에 XAU/USD가 $1980-$2000 수준을 다시 테스트할 확률을 약 60%로 보고 있습니다. 지속적인 지정학적 긴장과 연준의 불확실한 금리 인상 경로는 현재 수준에서 차익 실현이 있더라도 하방을 지지하는 것으로 보입니다. 반대로, 강력한 매파적 신호는 40% 확률로 $1930으로 되돌릴 수 있습니다. 이는 확률적 시나리오에 대한 저의 해석입니다.
I'm not convinced we'll see a strong push towards $2000 without a significant new catalyst. The geopolitical stuff is priced in, and the Fed's stance is well-telegraphed. Profit-taking around current levels seems more likely to me.
Interesting breakdown of probabilities. I'm not so sure geopolitics will be the primary driver this late in the year. The Fed's stance seems to be the more immediate catalyst for gold's short-term movements.
คิดว่ามีโอกาสแตะ 2000 สูงนะ ถ้าดูจากสถานการณ์ตอนนี้ ดอกเบี้ยคงไม่ขึ้นแรงแล้ว แต่มันก็ขึ้นอยู่กับว่ากลางเดือนหน้าเฟดจะส่งสัญญาณยังไง
Traderforum · 한국어