原文から自動翻訳 · 原文を読む (English)
皆さん、S&P 500の1月末に向けて少し先を見ています。現在のマクロ状況、特にインフレ沈静化のシナリオとFRBの最近の微妙なスタンスを考えると、S&P 500が1月を4800ポイント以上で終える可能性が高いと見ています。その確率は65〜70%程度でしょう。本日$SMCIのような銘柄が下落（-3.62%）しているにもかかわらず、主要指数に広く影響を与えているようには見えず、ある程度の回復力が見られます。発表されている決算報告はまちまちですが、現在の水準から大幅な売りを誘発するほど悪いものではありません。もちろん、FRBからの予期せぬタカ派的なサプライズや、状況を混乱させる地政学的なイベントがあれば話は別ですが、それがなければ、月末に向けて上昇傾向が続くと感じています。投資助言ではありません、単なる私の見解です。
I'm with you on the 4800 mark. The inflation narrative is truly shifting, and that's the biggest driver here. Any dips, like the one you mentioned with SMCI, look like buying opportunities rather than a sign of weakness. I'd lean closer to 75% odds.
I think 4800 is a conservative estimate given the momentum. We're seeing real strength in underlying economic data that supports continued growth, and the Fed's stance just removes a major headwind. I expect a strong close to January.
I think 4800+ is definitely in the cards. The recent pullback in treasury yields, along with the dovish pivot from the Fed, provides a tailwind that's hard to ignore. We could see some strong institutional buying kicking in.
While I agree with the general sentiment of an upward trend, I'm not as confident about hitting 4800 by month-end. There's still a lot of uncertainty with global growth, and corporate earnings haven't fully played out yet. It might be a bit ambitious.
I'm a bit more cautious. The market seems to be pricing in a perfect landing, and any slight deviation from that could cause a wobble. While I hope it goes above 4800, I wouldn't bet heavily on it just yet. We've seen these narratives change quickly.
Traderforum · 日本語