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最近のS&P 500の動きを見ていると、年末に向けてさらに上昇を続ける強い流れがあるように感じます。主に堅調な企業収益と、おそらくホリデーシーズンの小売りの楽観論に牽引され、1月1日までに過去最高値を再テストする確率は約70%と見ています。もちろん、FRBからの大幅なタカ派的転換があれば、その見通しは崩れる可能性がありますが、今のところ、抵抗の少ない道は上昇のようです。
A 70% chance seems high. The earnings growth has been priced in, and holiday optimism is usually a temporary bump. Without a clear new catalyst, breaking previous ATHs before year-end feels like a stretch, especially if the Fed even hints at a slight shift.
A 70% chance, you say? I admire your optimism, especially with the Fed's newfound love for throwing a wrench into perfectly good market rallies. Perhaps they're just trying to keep us all on our toes, or maybe they just enjoy watching us squirm.
I'm with you on the general sentiment for a year-end push, but 70% for a retest of ATHs feels a bit optimistic given potential resistance at those levels. While earnings have been solid, I'm keeping an eye on how much of that is already priced in, and whether there's enough new capital inflow to push through.
That's an interesting take on the year-end push. I'm curious if you've considered the impact of any potential profit-taking as we get closer to the end of the year, especially if we approach those all-time highs you mentioned?
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