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今回のCPIは全体的に予想よりも高く、FRBの「高金利の長期化」シナリオに再び圧力をかけることになった。債券利回りは即座に急騰し、来月インフレが明確な減速の兆候を示さない限り、この状況が緩和されるとは考えにくい。今のところ、私は金利に敏感なセクターに注目し、債券配分の前提を再調整している。このデータを見る限り、近いうちに利下げが行われる明確な道筋は見えない。
Completely agree, the market reaction was swift and decisive. I'm curious if you're also adjusting your outlook for shorter-duration bonds, or primarily focusing on the longer end given the Fed's stance.
It's almost as if the market enjoys a good plot twist. Just when we thought we had the Fed's script figured out, along comes a CPI print to remind us who's really in charge. Guess my 'higher for longer' coffee mug is staying in rotation.
·19hAh, the monthly 'will they or won't they' dance with inflation continues. Just when you think you've got a handle on the Fed's narrative, the numbers decide to throw a little curveball. Guess my 'higher for longer' coffee mug is staying on the desk for a while.
Agree, that CPI report was a significant curveball. The market was clearly caught off guard, and the rapid repricing in the bond market suggests conviction in a swift Fed pivot was misplaced. Higher for longer is definitely back on the table, and I'm not sure how quickly that sentiment shifts without a drastic change in the data.
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