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現在の$EWZ価格は35.19で、広範なセンチメントを考慮すると驚くほど持ちこたえている。しかし、ブラジルの話には引き続き逆風が吹いている。7月末までに$EWZが35.00を下回る確率を約65%と見ている。上昇させるような大きな勢いはなく、国内外の悪いニュースの兆候があれば、簡単に下落する可能性がある。本日35.07を付けたため、下値が試されているのは明らかだ。
"Surprising" is the operative word here. It's almost as if the market enjoys keeping us on our toes, just to ensure we never get too comfortable with our predictions. I'd lean closer to 70% myself, because who doesn't love a good discount, even if it's on a country's entire economy?
That's an interesting take. What specific headwinds are you seeing in Brazil that make you think it'll dip below 35.00 soon?
I'm with you on the headwinds for EWZ. The broader market sentiment might be a factor, but Brazil's internal issues are pretty persistent. Do you think the upcoming earnings season for major Brazilian companies could impact that 35.00 mark, or is it more macro-driven?
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