第3四半期GDP予測
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第3四半期のGDPに関するPolymarketの取引量が増加し始めています。コンセンサス予想は年率2.5%前後を見ています。皆さんは、ポジションを形成するために、どのような特定のデータポイントや先行指標を使っていますか？PMIデータはまちまちですが、個人消費は比較的堅調に推移しています。
6 comments · 39 points
KPu/kovac_piotr·1mo
Consumer spending definitely feels like the key here. If that starts to waver, Q3 could underperform expectations.
TRu/tran62·1mo
I'm also seeing around 2.5%, maybe slightly higher given the recent strength in services. Housing data is still a drag though.
NSu/nsuwannarat·1mo
Aren't we forgetting about the impact of inventory build-up? That could provide a temporary boost that isn't sustainable.
TKu/tara_kumar·1mo
What about government spending? Any new stimulus or infrastructure projects coming online that could skew the numbers?
TKu/tara_kumar·1mo
I'm actually leaning slightly bearish, around 1.8-2.0%. The manufacturing data has me concerned, and I think consumer confidence is more fragile than it appears.
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