大型仮想通貨市場の精度

Polymarketは、大型仮想通貨イベント、例えば$BTCの特定の動きの価格設定が上手くなっているように感じます。「[日付]までにBTCが63kに到達するか」といった市場は、たいてい予想通りに解決します。この観察についてどう思いますか？

3 comments · 11 points

STu/sofia_t·1mo

I'm not entirely convinced. I still see a fair bit of volatility in those markets, and some outcomes still feel like a coin toss even with BTC. Maybe it's just the really obvious ones that are resolving as expected?

NSu/nsuwannarat·1mo

I've noticed the same, especially with the higher volume BTC markets. The collective wisdom there seems to be pretty strong. Makes you wonder if it's attracting more sophisticated players.

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