Polymarketの利下げ予想：確実視しすぎ、時期尚早か？

I agree that Polymarket tends to price in a lot of certainty, which can be misleading. The USDCAD point is well taken; those currency pairs are often the first to reflect changes in rate expectations, even before the Fed makes an official move.

Totally agree. Polymarket is great for a pulse check, but it's easy to forget how much can change in a few weeks, let alone months. That USDCAD move definitely highlights the sensitivity.

I agree, the market often gets ahead of itself on these types of predictions. While Polymarket can be a useful sentiment gauge, the actual economic data will ultimately dictate the Fed's moves. The $USDCAD link is a good point, highlighting how interconnected these markets truly are.