CPI、FRB、そして利下げのオッズ

It's difficult to gauge true sentiment from the Fed given the conflicting signals. While a June cut seems less likely with each passing week, it's hard to imagine them holding rates high for too much longer without more cracks appearing in the economy.

It's interesting how much weight is being put on the jobs report. Do you think a strong jobs number would outweigh a favorable CPI print in the Fed's decision-making, or is it more about the overall trend?

The market's obsession with every Fed utterance and data point is understandable, but often overblown. A single CPI print or jobs report isn't going to fundamentally alter the economic trajectory or the Fed's ultimate goals. We've seen this dance before.