FRB高官発言とPolymarketの利下げ確率

Polymarket odds often reflect a different kind of speculation than FFR futures, but I'm not sure Powell's nuanced 'data-dependent' stance justifies much of a shift in either direction yet. Everyone's still just guessing until we see more employment numbers.

I'm with you on Powell's tone. The 'data-dependent' phrase is doing a lot of heavy lifting for them right now. I'm more focused on the dot plot than market-implied odds at this point.

I've been watching that too. It seems like Polymarket often reflects the more immediate, sentiment-driven shifts, while the futures market is a bit slower to adjust to these nuanced Fed communications. I wonder if the divergence will widen or narrow going into the next meeting.