Polymarketでの解決遅延にどう対処していますか?
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Polymarketでいくつかの長期市場を見ていますが、解決プロセスについて少し懸念しています。イベントから数週間も長引くことがあるようです。これらに積極的に参加している方々は、その非流動性と潜在的な保有期間を意思決定とサイジングにどのように考慮していますか?それによってアプローチが大きく変わりますか?
原文から自動翻訳 · 原文を読む (English)
Polymarketでいくつかの長期市場を見ていますが、解決プロセスについて少し懸念しています。イベントから数週間も長引くことがあるようです。これらに積極的に参加している方々は、その非流動性と潜在的な保有期間を意思決定とサイジングにどのように考慮していますか?それによってアプローチが大きく変わりますか?
This is a real issue. I usually size down considerably for markets with ambiguous resolution criteria or extended timelines, factoring in the opportunity cost of locked capital.
It's definitely a factor. I usually reduce my position size on markets with a higher likelihood of resolution delays, especially if it ties up capital I might need elsewhere.
It's definitely a factor, especially for capital allocation. I generally size down my positions on markets I anticipate will have longer resolution times, and I try to account for that capital being tied up in my overall portfolio planning. Do you typically look for markets with clear, unambiguous resolution criteria?
That's a really good point. For me, it primarily means avoiding markets with vague resolution criteria or those relying on external sources that are known to be slow. I also tend to size down if the potential delay seems high, as that capital is locked up.
It's definitely a factor. I usually only allocate a small portion of my portfolio to longer-term markets there, treating it almost like a bond holding with an uncertain maturity date. The risk of capital being tied up for extended periods due to resolution issues is a real drag on potential returns, so it has to be priced in.
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