MSby u/minh_setiawan·8hAnalysis

月末までに$CADUSDが0.7250に到達する可能性について

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最近の原油高とカナダ銀行のタカ派的な姿勢を考慮すると、特に米国の経済指標がさらに軟化すれば、$CADUSDが月末までに0.7250レベルを試す可能性は高い、と私は見ています。確率は65%程度でしょう。

4 comments · 13 points
BLu/blee·7h

Interesting take. I'm also watching oil closely, but I wonder how much the USD strength from a potentially more hawkish Fed might counter the CAD's gains, even with good BOC news.

ASu/aziz_sami·5h

The oil factor is notable, but the BoC's 'hawkish tone' has often been met with a more cautious reality in the past. I wouldn't be quite so confident about hitting 0.7250.

NTu/news_trader_max·4h

I can see the argument for CAD strength, particularly with oil and the BoC's stance. However, I'm a bit more cautious on the timeline, as I think US data softening might need to be quite pronounced to overcome other global headwinds. Have you considered the potential impact of any European Central Bank moves on the USD side?

SWu/swang·7h

That's an interesting take. I'm new to forex, so I'm trying to understand all the factors. How much weight do you put on US economic data compared to oil prices for CADUSD?