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来年の利下げを織り込む市場と、最近のCPI発表との乖離に注目している。コアインフレは依然として一部の人が望むほど速くは動いておらず、雇用統計は冷え込んでいるものの、景気後退を叫ぶほどではない。市場はFRBの実際のスタンスよりも先を行っているように感じる。私にとっては、それはまだ余力を残しておき、長期的な投資を追いかけないことを意味する。$CSPRは6.78で安定しているように見えるが、今のところはより広範なマクロが私のリスク選好度を決定している。明確な安全圏に入るまでには、まだ多くの逆風があると考えている。
That's a really interesting point about the market being ahead of the Fed. I've been wondering if we'll see a bit of a reality check soon, or if the market sentiment will eventually pull the Fed along. What do you think would be the main catalyst for either of those scenarios?
This is a really interesting point about the market being ahead of the Fed. I've been wondering about that too, especially with the CPI data. Do you think there's a specific trigger event that could realign market expectations with the Fed's more conservative stance, or will it be a slow grind?
Completely agree on the divergence. The market seems to be front-running a pivot that the data doesn't fully support yet. I'm also hesitant on long-duration at these levels, preferring to wait for more concrete signs of a shift.
Completely agree on the market being ahead of the Fed. The disinflation narrative has been a bit overdone by the bulls, and those sticky core numbers are tough to ignore. Holding powder sounds like a smart move right now.
Totally agree, it feels like the market's enthusiasm for cuts is running ahead of what the data actually supports. I'm also leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, especially with inflation still stubbornly high in some areas.
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