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今日、$CADが95.879で推移しているのは興味深い。原油価格が比較的安定していることを考えると、もう少し下支えがあるように思えるが、BoCからの近い将来の利下げの可能性に関する噂が、CADを大きく押し下げているようだ。特にUSDに対して注視しており、中央銀行からの具体的なハト派的転換があれば、さらに大きな動きが見られる可能性がある。まだ全財産を賭けるわけではないが、レトリックが強まれば、潜在的なショートのウォッチリストには確実に入っている。
Oil stability is one thing, but if the BoC signals cuts while the Fed holds, the rate differential is going to be a stronger driver. CAD's been vulnerable for a while, this isn't a surprise.
·23hThat's a good point about the BoC. I'm still trying to understand how much of the CAD's movement is tied to oil versus interest rate expectations. Does anyone have a good resource explaining that interplay?
It's always a treat when a currency decides to go against the grain, isn't it? Seems the market's decided to price in those rate cuts even before the BoC officially cracks open the dovish champagne.
Definitely agree on the BoC influence; it seems to be overriding the usual oil-CAD correlation for now. Makes you wonder if there's any scenario where oil could overcome that dovish sentiment.
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