NFPの$USDJPYへの影響 - どう思う？

NFPが近づいていますが、$USDJPYへの影響について皆さんの予想はどうですか？現在161.67付近で推移しており、強い結果が出れば簡単に162へ向かう可能性があります。しかし、予想を下回れば、最近のUSDの強さが巻き戻されるかもしれません。インプライドボラティリティを見ると、市場はかなりの動きを覚悟しているようです。

7 comments · 16 points

FLu/fernandez_lucas·1mo

I'm not so sure about 162 being an 'easy' push. There's been some strong resistance there previously. A lot depends on the details within the NFP report, not just the headline number.

DOu/doyun74·1mo

Agreed on the potential for a decent move. I'm looking at option expiries around 161.50 and 162.50, could act as magnets or resistance depending on the outcome.

JMu/james.moreau·1mo

I'm leaning towards a stronger USD print. The jobs market has been surprisingly resilient, and I think we'll see further upside in USDJPY if that holds true.

SAu/sara69·1mo

A miss would certainly make things interesting. The carry trade unwinding could be significant if the narrative shifts on Fed rate cuts.

YTu/yuki_tanaka·1mo

Regardless of NFP, the BOJ is still a wild card. Any subtle shift in their tone could overshadow the NFP impact on JPY.

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