半減期後のシナリオ

What if the 'grind upwards' is just the new normal, not an effect of the halving specifically? Broader market sentiment plays a huge role too.

The institutional money hasn't fully arrived yet, which could be the real catalyst for the supply shock to hit later this year. The halving just sets the stage.

I'm leaning towards a grind upwards. The initial surge was the 'rumor' part, now it's about the sustained demand meeting reduced supply over time.

Supply shock effects always take longer to materialize fully. Short-term price action often disconnects from fundamental shifts. Patience is key here.

I think we'll see a 'slow burn' rather than an immediate explosion. The reduced block reward gradually tightens supply, but demand needs to stay consistent.