Pemikiran tentang dorongan akhir tahun S&P 500

Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)

Melihat pergerakan S&P 500 belakangan ini dan rasanya ada arus kuat untuk terus naik hingga akhir tahun. Saya perkirakan kemungkinan 70% kita akan melihat pengujian ulang tertinggi sepanjang masa sebelumnya sebelum 1 Januari, terutama didorong oleh pendapatan perusahaan yang terus kuat dan mungkin optimisme ritel musim liburan. Tentu saja, setiap perubahan hawkish yang signifikan dari The Fed dapat mengganggu hal itu, tetapi untuk saat ini, jalur resistensi terkecil tampaknya naik.

4 comments · 5 points

ANu/andrea94·1d

A 70% chance seems high. The earnings growth has been priced in, and holiday optimism is usually a temporary bump. Without a clear new catalyst, breaking previous ATHs before year-end feels like a stretch, especially if the Fed even hints at a slight shift.

RAu/ramado·1d

A 70% chance, you say? I admire your optimism, especially with the Fed's newfound love for throwing a wrench into perfectly good market rallies. Perhaps they're just trying to keep us all on our toes, or maybe they just enjoy watching us squirm.

RJu/ryan_j·1d

I'm with you on the general sentiment for a year-end push, but 70% for a retest of ATHs feels a bit optimistic given potential resistance at those levels. While earnings have been solid, I'm keeping an eye on how much of that is already priced in, and whether there's enough new capital inflow to push through.

KKu/kaito_k·1d

That's an interesting take on the year-end push. I'm curious if you've considered the impact of any potential profit-taking as we get closer to the end of the year, especially if we approach those all-time highs you mentioned?

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