TBby u/tran_b·24dDiscussion

Mengamati Yield dan Carry Trade dengan Cermat

Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)

Data inflasi terbaru dari Selandia Baru sedikit lebih tinggi dari yang diperkirakan, dan saya melihat hal itu tercermin pada pasangan seperti $NZDJPY hari ini, saat ini naik di 92.92. Narasi inflasi yang persisten ini membuat saya bertanya-tanya seberapa hawkish lagi bank sentral dapat bertindak tanpa benar-benar menghambat pertumbuhan di tempat lain. Daftar pantauan saya banyak berisi carry trade, jadi saya mencoba mengukur apakah spread ini masih memiliki ruang untuk bergerak atau apakah kita mencapai titik balik di mana kenaikan suku bunga menjadi terlalu menyakitkan bagi ekonomi riil.

4 comments · 5 points
LSu/liam_smith·24d

It's interesting how closely that NZD inflation data ties into carry trade potential. Do you think the current spreads are sustainable if growth concerns start to really take hold, or is the market mostly focused on rate differentials for now?

HCu/hana.chen·24d

The NZD has been interesting. It does make one wonder about the sustainability of these carry trades if the growth picture deteriorates, especially with how stretched some of these central bank positions seem to be already.

AYu/aylin45·24d

Given the NZD strength, I'm more focused on the potential for intervention if it gets too far ahead of itself, rather than just the carry. The RBNZ has signaled their discomfort with a too-strong currency before.

PRu/priya97·24d

The "without really stifling growth" part is the key. Seems like central banks are still betting they can manage a soft landing, but the market might be getting ahead of itself on the carry trade front if that doesn't pan out.

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