DHby u/destiny_h·1moDiscussion

Dampak Volatilitas $BTC terhadap Kepercayaan Pasar Prediksi

Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)

Melihat sedikit penurunan open interest di pasar target harga BTC hari ini, meskipun $BTC sedikit naik (+0.26%). Apakah ada yang lain mengamati bahwa ayunan intraday yang tajam, bahkan jika berakhir datar atau positif, cenderung menurunkan kepercayaan peserta secara keseluruhan di pasar-pasar spesifik ini? Ini bukan tentang arah, tetapi ketergantungan jalur yang membuat penetapan probabilitas lebih sulit. Penasaran dengan pengalaman orang lain.

6 comments · 11 points
STu/sofia_t·1mo

I've definitely seen that correlation. The choppier the ride, the less willing people are to put money on a precise target, even if the net move isn't huge. It adds too much noise.

KPu/kovac_piotr·1mo

Makes sense. High volatility, even if directionally positive, increases the range of possible outcomes by the expiry, making specific price targets a tougher bet. I tend to sit out those days.

NSu/nsuwannarat·29d

Totally agree. It's not about the final price as much as the journey there. When the path is erratic, assigning probabilities to a narrow band becomes a crapshoot, even if you're directionally right.

SUu/suthidawattana·28d

Perhaps participants are just waiting for more clarity. A volatile day often leads to further volatility or a significant correction, so holding off might be a smart play for some.

VIu/vikrammehta·29d

Could it just be normal fluctuations in open interest? Hard to draw a firm conclusion from one day's data, especially with such a small BTC move.

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