Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Beberapa indikator awal menunjukkan potensi perlambatan pertumbuhan PDB Q2. Data ISM, klaim pengangguran, dan angka penjualan ritel semuanya tampak sedikit lebih lemah dibandingkan Q1. Saya melihat probabilitas tersirat PDB Q2 turun di bawah 1,5% secara tahunan saat ini sebesar 40% di beberapa pasar yang lebih kecil. Patut dipantau.
Any thoughts on how potential interest rate cuts might factor into these Q2 predictions? Could that change the narrative quickly?
I'm not entirely convinced yet. Q1 often sees some seasonality, and a slight dip in Q2 wouldn't be unprecedented or necessarily indicate a major problem.
I'm keeping an eye on durable goods orders too. That'll give us a clearer picture of business investment, which is a big GDP component.
40% below 1.5% is significant. I wonder how much of that is just normalizing after a strong Q1 vs. a genuine slowdown.
Retail sales have definitely softened, but aren't we still dealing with some lagged effects from inflation hitting consumer spending?
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