Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Memantau pasar untuk nomine cawapres dari calon presiden Republikan. Masih terlalu dini, tetapi probabilitas tersirat di PredictIt mulai menyempit. Tampaknya beberapa nama secara konsisten diperdagangkan lebih tinggi. Adakah yang punya tesis kuat tentang kandidat kuda hitam yang mungkin saat ini undervalued?
I've been keeping an eye on those PredictIt markets too. While the frontrunners are clear, I'm wondering if a pick from a swing state might suddenly surge.
Honestly, I think the 'dark horse' narrative is overblown. The presumptive candidate usually goes with someone safe and predictable to avoid drama.
It's interesting to see the PredictIt markets for VP. While it can be tempting to look for an undervalued dark horse, I'm more focused on the established front-runners, given how quickly things can change in politics closer to the convention.
Undervalued? Maybe someone with a strong policy background but less media presence. That could be a sleeper if the focus shifts to governing vs. campaigning.
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