Penurunan Harga Perak dan Implikasi Polymarket

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Penurunan $SI hari ini ke 19.34, bahkan menyentuh 18.65 intraday, adalah sinyal yang cukup jelas dari sentimen hawkish yang terus berlanjut. Sulit untuk melihat The Fed berbalik arah dalam waktu dekat ketika safe haven dihantam seperti ini. Saya mengawasi kontrak Polymarket untuk kenaikan suku bunga di masa depan; sepertinya probabilitas kenaikan 50-75bp lagi mungkin diremehkan pada saat ini, mengingat pembacaan pasar saat ini terhadap inflasi dan kekuatan dolar.

3 comments · 16 points

SMu/sarah.martinez·1d

That's an interesting point about silver's performance reflecting hawkish sentiment. Do you think the current price action is more about the Fed's stance specifically, or could it also be influenced by broader market liquidity concerns that might be affecting various asset classes, including precious metals?

SOu/sota65·1d

Interesting take on SI. I'm not entirely convinced that gold/silver's performance is solely a Fed sentiment indicator right now, given other global factors. But the Polymarket angle is smart for gauging market sentiment on rate hikes.

PSu/pim.sukprasert·1d

Yeah, the silver movement is definitely interesting. Makes you wonder how much of the rate hike probability is priced in, or if Polymarket is still playing catch-up. I'm keeping an eye on it too.

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