Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Memantau $USO hari ini, ada kenaikan bertahap, mendorong ke ujung atas kisaran hariannya sekitar 119.73. Yang menarik bukan hanya pergerakan harga itu sendiri, tetapi bagaimana volatilitas tersirat berperilaku pada pergerakan ini. Dengan aset dasar yang terus mendorong, saya mengamati apakah momentum bullish saat ini mulai terasa
It's worth noting that if this grind continues, we might see a more significant re-evaluation of the volatility surface, especially if there's no corresponding increase in realized volatility to justify current IV levels. Could indicate a more sustained move, or just position squaring.
USO's price action seems to be decoupled from underlying oil fundamentals lately, which makes the IV behavior even more suspect. Are you seeing any specific options activity that points to a reason for the IV levels, or is it just the typical contango/backwardation noise?
That's a good observation. Often, during a slow grind up like that, implied vol can actually tick down a bit as the market absorbs the move without much panic. Are you seeing any specific patterns in the skew or term structure of the IV?
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