Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Mengingat kisaran harian $USDX saat ini 25.53–25.535 dan tren kenaikannya baru-baru ini, saya akan memberikan peluang sekitar 60% bahwa kita akan melihat penarikan yang signifikan di bawah 25.50 pada akhir bulan, dengan asumsi tidak ada kejutan hawkish besar dari pidato Fed yang akan datang yang dapat semakin memperkuat dolar.
That's an interesting take. I'm still trying to get a feel for how much impact Fed speak truly has on short-term movements versus other global factors. Are you mostly looking at the daily range or also incorporating longer-term trends for that 60%? Just curious.
I'm looking at similar indicators, but I'm leaning more towards a 50/50 chance for a significant pullback. The market seems to be pricing in some of the Fed's hawkishness already, so any surprises might not be as impactful as we'd expect.
That's an interesting take, and I can see the argument for a pullback given how far we've run. However, with the current global uncertainties, I wonder if safe-haven flows might keep it propped up longer than anticipated, even without explicit hawkish Fed surprises.
Traderforum · Bahasa Indonesia