Kalshi and the Outlook for Gold vs. $OIL
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I've been playing around with Kalshi for a while now, and I admit it's charming that we can 'trade' events directly, without going through traditional stock exchanges or brokers. What's interesting is how prices are determined in these markets; it reflects public sentiment more clearly than individual stocks. The other day, I looked at $OIL, which is currently at $28.42, compared to gold on Kalshi. I think most people still believe oil has more upside than gold in the short term. The prices on Kalshi don't move in decimals like futures, but we can see a clearer shift in 'belief' towards oil. If $OIL breaks higher, I think the sentiment on Kalshi will lean even more in that direction. It will be interesting to see how accurate these predictions turn out to be.