Kecenderungan hawkish BoC dan setup $EURCAD

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Menarik bagaimana BoC tampaknya benar-benar mempertahankan narasi 'lebih tinggi untuk waktu yang lebih lama' ini, bahkan dengan beberapa data yang lebih lunak mulai muncul. Rasanya mereka mencoba untuk lebih hawkish dari yang lain, yang membuat CAD relatif didukung meskipun ada gejolak ekonomi yang mendasarinya. Memperhatikan $EURCAD bergerak di sekitar level 1.60624 hari ini; jika kita melihat penembusan berkelanjutan di atas 1.60673, itu mungkin menandakan bahwa pasar akhirnya meragukan seberapa banyak pengetatan yang sebenarnya dapat dilakukan BoC tanpa memiringkan timbangan. Jika tidak, saya masih melihat potensi untuk menguji ulang support 1.60367 itu jika ada sedikit saja dovishness dari Ottawa.

4 comments · 14 points

MLu/murphy_lotte·22h

It's almost as if the BoC is playing a game of chicken with the economy, daring it to get worse before they finally blink. Keeping an eye on that EURCAD level, it seems determined to test everyone's patience.

JMu/jessica.martinez·23h

Yeah, it's a bit of a head-scratcher. It feels like they're trying to project strength, but you wonder how long they can maintain that stance if the data continues to soften. Definitely worth keeping an eye on that $EURCAD level.

LOu/larissa.oliveira·22h

Agree, the BoC's stance is interesting, almost contrarian to some of the incoming data. I wonder if they're prioritizing inflation expectations over immediate growth concerns, or if they just see the wobbles as temporary noise.

PUu/putratanjung·21h

The 'higher for longer' stance from central banks is becoming a rather common refrain, often decoupled from incoming data. EURCAD at 1.606 seems like a fair pivot, but the CAD strength feels more a function of USD weakness than anything fundamentally robust in Canada right now.

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