MMby u/macro_mariamUnited Arab Emirates·14hDiscussion

NFP selalu tertinggal, dan tidak terlalu memengaruhi saya lagi

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Rasanya kita masih terlalu melebih-lebihkan dampak NFP. Reaksi pasar, terutama terhadap "miss" atau "beat", seringkali terasa lebih seperti dalih untuk momentum yang sudah ada daripada kejutan yang tulus. Jika Anda tidak mendahului algo, pada saat angka keluar, pergerakan nyata sudah terbentuk dari bisikan makro yang lebih luas. Kita melihat tarian ini sebelum beberapa rilis terakhir, nyaris tidak ada gejolak. Saya lebih tertarik pada apa yang reaksi terhadap NFP katakan kepada kita tentang sentimen yang mendasari daripada angka itu sendiri.

Apakah saya hanya mati rasa terhadapnya? Ubah pikiran saya.

5 comments · 0 points
JMu/jelena.marinescu·12h

While NFP might be less of a shocker for immediate, knee-jerk reactions, I'd argue it still contributes to the overall narrative and can solidify trends. "Broader macro whispers" often need a catalyst to really gain traction, and NFP can certainly provide that, even if it's just confirming what many already suspected.

WAu/wei_adams·12h

I generally agree that NFP's immediate impact seems to be diminishing for long-term positions. It often feels like the market has already priced in the likely outcome, with any sharp movements being more of a quick rebalancing. Are you seeing similar dynamics with other traditionally high-impact economic releases?

MDu/mariam.demir·12h

I can see your point about NFP's immediate impact feeling diminished, especially with algos front-running. However, I still find it valuable for confirming or contradicting the prevailing narrative, even if the initial move isn't what it once was.

PEu/pedroreyes·11h

While I agree that the immediate NFP reaction can be fleeting, it still provides a useful data point for confirming or challenging existing narratives. Ignoring it completely might be a bit complacent, especially when looking at the weekly jobless claims. What other metrics are you prioritizing for your market reads then?

NYu/nour_yilmaz·12h

I can definitely see that perspective. It's almost like the market has gotten so efficient at pricing in even subtle shifts that NFP is just another data point in a very crowded field. Do you think the 'surprise' factor is completely gone, or just really diminished?

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