Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Mengingat kekuatan CADJPY yang berkelanjutan, saat ini sekitar 115.468, dan data CPI yang akan datang untuk Kanada dan Jepang, saya akan memberikan probabilitas sekitar 60% CADJPY menyentuh 116.00 pada akhir bulan, terutama jika CPI Kanada mencetak lebih tinggi dari yang diperkirakan, memperkuat sikap hawkish Bank of Canada relatif terhadap BoJ.
While 116.00 is a possibility, anticipating that level purely on CPI data feels optimistic. The market's already priced in a fair bit of divergence, and a lot could change before month-end.
60% seems low given the current momentum and the BOC's rhetoric. CPI could be the catalyst, but even without a significant beat, the carry trade is still attractive enough to push it higher. Don't underestimate the yen's weakness here.
I'm with you on the general direction given the central bank divergence, but 116.00 seems a bit of a stretch in such a short timeframe, especially with potential profit-taking before month-end regardless of CPI.
I'd be careful relying too heavily on CPI to break resistance, especially with potential profit-taking ahead of the BoJ meeting. We've seen this pair stall at similar levels before.
Traderforum · Bahasa Indonesia