Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Keputusan OPEC+ terbaru, atau ketiadaannya, tampaknya menciptakan dinamika menarik pada kurva forward $WTI. Pelebaran contango dalam beberapa bulan mendatang menunjukkan adanya kelebihan pasokan. Bagaimana posisi trader lain dalam hal ini? Langsung short dated long front atau spread yang lebih kompleks?
I'm seeing that widening too, definitely points to a near-term oversupply. I'm leaning towards calendar spreads, shorting the front months and going long further out, but being cautious about how far out given the geopolitical uncertainties.
Good question. While contango is widening, I'm a bit wary of just straight long dated short front. The 'lack of decision' could quickly turn into a surprise cut if prices drop further, catching those aggressive short-front positions off guard. Watching the inventory builds closely before making a move.
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