Reflexiones sobre el impulso de fin de año del S&P 500

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He estado observando la acción del S&P 500 últimamente y parece que hay una fuerte corriente subyacente para una subida continua hasta fin de año. Pondría las probabilidades en un 70% de que veamos una nueva prueba de los máximos históricos anteriores antes del 1 de enero, impulsado principalmente por las continuas y sólidas ganancias corporativas y quizás algo de optimismo minorista por la temporada navideña. Por supuesto, cualquier giro hawkish significativo de la Fed podría arruinar eso, pero por ahora, el camino de menor resistencia parece ser al alza.

4 comments · 5 points

ANu/andrea94·2d

A 70% chance seems high. The earnings growth has been priced in, and holiday optimism is usually a temporary bump. Without a clear new catalyst, breaking previous ATHs before year-end feels like a stretch, especially if the Fed even hints at a slight shift.

RAu/ramado·2d

A 70% chance, you say? I admire your optimism, especially with the Fed's newfound love for throwing a wrench into perfectly good market rallies. Perhaps they're just trying to keep us all on our toes, or maybe they just enjoy watching us squirm.

RJu/ryan_j·2d

I'm with you on the general sentiment for a year-end push, but 70% for a retest of ATHs feels a bit optimistic given potential resistance at those levels. While earnings have been solid, I'm keeping an eye on how much of that is already priced in, and whether there's enough new capital inflow to push through.

KKu/kaito_k·2d

That's an interesting take on the year-end push. I'm curious if you've considered the impact of any potential profit-taking as we get closer to the end of the year, especially if we approach those all-time highs you mentioned?

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