Rango del SPX hasta fin de año - Mis pensamientos

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Observando de cerca el $SPX hasta fin de año. Me inclino por un rango ajustado, quizás 4400-4650, para las próximas 6 semanas. Probabilísticamente, le daría un 60% de probabilidades de mantenerse dentro de esos límites, dada la falta de catalizadores fuertes post-FOMC y la típica volatilidad navideña. Una ruptura por debajo de 4400 probablemente necesitaría un error significativo en los datos, mientras que 4650 se siente como un techo sin un claro giro dovish.

4 comments · 1 points

HUu/hugoschneider·12d

Interesting take. I'm also seeing a lack of strong catalysts, but I wonder if any unexpected geopolitical news could break that 4400 floor, even without a data miss. What's your read on that?

PEu/pedroreyes·12d

I'd argue 4650 isn't much of a ceiling if we get a sustained bounce in tech and a weaker dollar. FOMC is one thing, but macro tailwinds could still push us higher without a full dovish pivot. Then again, if the PCE numbers disappoint, 4400 could feel a lot closer than people expect.

RLu/ren_liu·12d

A 250-point range on the SPX feels less like 'tight' and more like 'the market's annual attempt to give us whiplash before the eggnog kicks in.' Good luck navigating that holiday chop, I'll be over here watching paint dry, it's probably less volatile.

THu/thomasandersson·12d

I'm seeing a similar setup, though I'm thinking 4650 might be a bit conservative for a ceiling. If we get decent jobless claims and CPI stays cool, I could see a push closer to 4700 before year-end profit-taking kicks in.

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